Future of Chinese economy in hands of
consumer culture
BBC :9 December 2011 Last updated
at 00:07 GMT
Source: By Neil KoenigProducer, Start-Up Stories
David Roche, chairman of investment
advisory firm Independent Strategy, believes the future of the Chinese economy
lies in the service industry
The official economic reforms undertaken in
China
獨立策略投顧公司總裁大衛·羅氏，認為中國經濟的未來在於服務業
在20世紀70年代末及80年代初在中國進行的官方經濟改革有一非凡的影響。
Over the past thirty years, the country's
economy has grown to become the second largest in the world.
This growth has been powered, in large
part, by the emergence of millions of new businesses.
But for many founders of these new
companies, optimism and enthusiasm were tempered by difficulties and pitfalls.
There were few role models during that time and it was hard to find the right
business model.
在過去的三十多年中，該國的經濟已經發展成為世界第二大經濟體。
這種成長很具影響力。有很大部份數以百萬的新興事業出現。
但很多新公司的創始人，其樂觀和熱情被困難和陷阱鍛鍊。在那段時間裡有幾個角色模型，但很難找到合適的商業模式。
The beginnings
開端
David Roche is chairman of Independent
Strategy, an investment advisory firm with offices in London
and Hong Kong .
A former senior executive at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley, Mr Roche has
watched the business scene in China
獨立策略投顧公司總裁大衛·羅氏，在倫敦和香港設有辦事處。
這位前美國投資銀行摩根士丹利的高級主管羅氏 先生已經看到，在中國的商業領域經過多年後的發展。
Deng Xiaoping encouraged enterprise in
certain areas of the country
He says it's not surprising that many of
the 1980s wave of would-be entrepreneurs found the task of starting companies
bewildering - the culture of enterprise in China
"Any form of entrepreneurship was
frowned on, yet there was less monolithic industry than in the Soviet Union ," he says.
鄧小平鼓勵該國某些地區企業的發展
他說， 20世紀80年代許多想成為企業家的浪潮對成立公司感到迷惑並不奇怪，
在中國的企業文化上升到某階段，到那時減輕反而是最好的。
“任何形式的創業家皺起眉頭，尚未有整體工業小於蘇聯”他說。
"For example, local authorities were
allowed to own their own enterprises. Now that is not exactly entrepreneurship
- but they were meant to make a profit and they catered for local needs. So it
was a kind of a mish-mash but not individual entrepreneurship."
“例如，地方政府雖被允許擁有自己的企業，但現在那並非完全是創業家。但他們創造利潤並滿足當地需求。因此，它像是大雜燴，但不是個人創業“
One of the most visible early signs of the
economic liberalisation ushered in by the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping was the
establishment of so-called special economic zones, such as Shenzhen and Zhuhai
in the south of the country.
由中國領導人鄧小平的經濟自由化早期最明顯的跡象之一是建立所謂的特殊的經濟特區，如該國南部深圳和珠海。
Initially the focus was on manufacturing
and export-led activity. But as economic growth became more firmly established,
new opportunities for entrepreneurs began to arise in domestic markets.
在這些領域隨著外商投資的可能性，鼓勵企業發展。勞工移民如潮湧入般從周圍的農村移民到新工廠工作。
最初的重點是生產和出口為主導的活動。但隨著經濟增長變得更加牢固地，企業家在國內市場的機會上升。
In the furniture industry, for example,
company founders such as Zhai Meiqing grabbed
the chance to build a huge home-furnishing retail chain catering to the needs
of an emerging middle-class.
The network of manufacturers that Ms Zhai
drew upon to supply her stores, would later provide the inspiration for
entrepreneurs such as Ning
Li to create new businesses aimed at Western consumers.
New opportunities
新的機遇
Thirty years on from Deng Xiaoping's
reforms, the Chinese economy is still growing fast and as prosperity spreads,
some business owners see plenty of potential ahead.
Wang Zhongjun,
co-founder of entertainment conglomerate Huayi Brothers, is determined to seize
the chance to build a ''film-making giant'' off the back of very strong growth
in Chinese cinema audience figures. Zhu Guofan, who runs a
network of foot-massage establishments, dreams of leading a company with
200,000 employees.
從鄧小平改革三十年來，中國經濟仍快速增長和繁榮的伸展，一些企業的老闆看到很多未來潛力。
Zhu Gofan saw the opportunities in the
service industry and set up a chain of massage parlours.
朱國凡看到在服務行業的機遇並設立連鎖按摩店
Mr Roche says that there's little doubt
that a shift in the make-up of the Chinese economy is underway.
The days will soon be over when growth can
be driven by "exporting widgets and having massive savings rates which go
into the manufacturing industry" and businesses catering to the needs of
domestic consumers will become more important.
In the future, the biggest opportunities
for Chinese entrepreneurs will be in the service sector because that's where
the economy has to grow, says Mr Roche. "It cannot grow through exports
any more, it's got to grow through the consumer."
在未來，中國企業家最大的機會將在服務部門，因為這是經濟增長下的成果，羅氏 先生說。“它可以不通過出口增長經濟，而是透過增加消費來創造經濟。”
"As soon as the consumer gets in the
picture you get middle classes. Middle classes are voracious consumers of
services. They want to be insured. They want to have nice doctors. They want to
have nice dry cleaners."
“消費者只要需求增長
就能帶動中產階級，中產階級渴求消費者的服務。他們希望被保障。他們希望有很好的醫生。他們希望擁有很好的乾洗店。”
New risks
新的風險
But, according to Mr Roche, at the same
time as a new emphasis on services may present businesses with new
opportunities, there are challenges ahead for the overall economy, because
"productivity drives [the] growth rate".
但是，根據總裁羅氏 先生表示，在強調作為一個新的服務的同時可能會出現新的企業商機，也讓整體經濟面對未來的挑戰，因為“生產力驅動增長率”。
It's easier to obtain efficiency gains in
manufacturing and mass production than it is in the processes that enable the
delivery of services. He points to the example of the US, where he says the
productivity rate of the service sector is substantially lower than that of the
manufacturing sector.
在傳遞服務上，製造業比製造過程更容易獲得效率收益和大規模生產。他指出，美國的例子，在那裡他所說的服務部門的生產率大大低於製造業部門。
Mr Roche adds that as the Chinese economy
becomes more dependent on domestic services, the productivity achieved will
drop, and therefore so will the growth rate.
"That doesn't mean the people will get
poorer but it [does] mean that [China won't] catch up with our living standards
at the same speed," he says.
“這並不意味著人民會越來越窮，但意味著[中國] 不會以同樣的速度趕上我們的生活水平，”他說。
Mr Roche also sees another potential
problem ahead, if the "consumer society" in China keeps on expanding.
He says that middle-class people want rights.
"They want their houses protected.
They don't want people telling them: get out of the way… we want to put a
freeway here."
A middle-class society may be a little less
easy to control.
“他們想保護他們的房子，他們不希望有人告訴他們：“離開這裡......我們希望在這裡設置高速公路。”
一個中產階級的社會，可能會有點不太容易控制。
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