市場動盪背後的因素(上)

Factors behind market turmoil

Source :BBC 27 October 2011

Traders are nervous about economic news

交易人對經濟新聞緊張不安

It has been a volatile period for global markets, driven by almost unprecedented uncertainty amongst investors about the global economy and fears that politicians may be unable to fix economic problems.

全球市場一直壟罩在動盪不安中，源由包括投資者對全球經濟抱持史無前例的確定性及對政治家可能無法修復經濟問題的恐懼。

Recent economic data has suggested the recovery in the West may be petering out, feeding renewed worries about the eurozone debt crisis.

近期公佈的經濟數據已建議在西方世界復甦可能希望渺茫，市場供給者對歐元區債務危機再度憂慮。

This, it is feared, could in turn cause a second banking crisis if governments are unable to pay back their debts.

人們擔心，如果各國政府無法償還其債務 這又將導致第二次金融危機。

And in the face of these twin concerns some investors say policymakers have not done enough to provide certainty about how the crisis will be tackled.

The key factor worrying investors is slowing growth in the US and Europe.

在面對這雙重關注，一些投資者說，決策者做得不足以提供有關危機如何確實解決應付。

投資者擔憂的關鍵因素是美國和歐洲的成長放緩。

Crisis jargon buster

危機行話術語

* jargon buster 是行業術語表的意思。用二十四個英文字母作索引，按照術語開頭字母來查。有點像英語字典。

Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:

使用下拉式選單以容易理解關鍵財務項目的解釋

AAA-rating


AAA評級

The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is minuscule.

可給予債務借款人最好的信用評級，表明違約借款的風險是微不足道的。

Glossary in full 系列專門詞典

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy has entered what it calls a "dangerous new phase" of low growth and high public debt.

It significantly reduced its growth forecast for the world's advanced economies, predicting GDP growth of just 1.5% this year.

國際貨幣基金組織警告說，全球經濟已進入了它所謂的低增長和高公共債務“的危險的新階段”。

世界先進經濟體的大大減少了增長預測，預測今年GDP增長僅為 1.5％。

The US Federal Reserve has also painted a pessimistic picture of the economic outlook.

"There are significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets," said the US central bank in a statement.

美國聯邦儲備委員會也描繪了對經濟前景的悲觀圖片。

美國央行在一份聲明中說：“經濟前景有顯著的的下行風險，包括全球金融市場的緊張”。

The US economy created 103,000 new jobs in September, ahead of many economists' expectations. But the jobless rate was stuck at 9.1%, according to latest data from the Department of Labor.

美國經濟在9月份創造了103000新的工作，許多經濟學家預期。但根據勞工部的最新數據，失業率停留在9.1％。

And the US Commerce Department said that the world's largest economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.3% between April and June.

美國商務部說，世界上經濟成長最大在四月至六月有1.3％的年增長率。

In the eurozone things are little better.

在歐元區的事情更好一些。

The eurozone's manufacturing sector is still in the doldrums, with output in September falling at its fastest pace in two years, according to Markit's Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index.

歐元區製造業仍處於低迷狀態，根據麥蓋提的歐元區製造業採購經理指數表示，這兩年內在九月產量下降的速度最快。

Growth in the German economy also slowed sharply between April and June, growing by just 0.1% in the quarter.

The French economy was flat during the same period.

在德國四月至六月間經濟增長也大幅放緩，在本季度增長僅為 0.1％。

在同一時期，法國經濟呈平坦狀。

債務危機傳播

The concerns about growth have also fuelled worries about the indebtedness of eurozone states.

If economies are not growing, tax receipts fall, making it harder for governments to pay off their debts.

對經濟成長的關注，也憂慮歐元區國家的債務。
如果經濟不發展，稅收收入下降，使各國政府更難還債。

So far Greece, Portugal and the Irish Republic have received international help to deal with their crippling debt problems.

到目前為止，希臘，葡萄牙和愛爾蘭共和國已獲得國際社會的幫助來處理其沉重的債務問題。

In graphics: Compare economies

In early October, Italy's credit rating was slashed by Moody's from Aa2 to A2, with the ratings agency blaming a "material increase in long-term funding risks for the euro area" due to lost confidence in eurozone governments' debt.

Italy follows fellow eurozone countries Spain, the Republic of Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus in having its credit rating downgraded this year.

在十月初，意大利的信用評級被大幅削減，穆迪信評降為 Aa2至A2，評級機構指責由於對歐元區政府債務失去了信心“此增加歐元區的長期資金風險的物質”。

意大利今年隨歐元區國家同儕如西班牙，愛爾蘭，希臘，葡萄牙和塞浦路斯共和國等國家下調其信用評級。

In July, eurozone leaders agreed a second bailout deal for Greece, and also agreed more powers for the European Financial Stability Fund to help countries struggling with indebtedness.

在七月份，歐元區領導人同意一項位希臘次緊急援助處理，還同意為歐洲金融穩定基金，以幫助更多遭受權力掙扎與債務的國家。

This allowed the fund to buy government debt (bonds), offer credit to nations in difficulty and created a special facility for recapitalising banks.

It included an agreement by private banks to swap existing Greek debt with longer term debt paying lower interest.

在圖形：比較經濟

這同意基金購買政府債券（債券），提供信貸困難的國家，並為調整資本的銀行創造了特殊設施。

它包括一個由私人銀行的換股協議，以支付較低的利息換取持有長期希臘債券。

The enlarged eurozone rescue fund was ratified in most of the 17 nations that use the single currency, including Germany.

包括德國在內大多數使用單一貨幣的17個國家批准了擴大歐元區救助基金。

⌘ 歐洲金融穩定基金（ＥＦＳＦ）(European Financial Stability Fund，簡稱EFSF)

But Italy's problems in particular meant the July deal was soon seen as insufficient.

Following its role in the Greek bailout, the EFSF was estimated to have just 250bn euros ($350bn, £219bn) left, which was not enough to guarantee lending to a large economy like Italy for more than a year.

In October, European leaders agreed a series of new measures to try to prevent the debt crisis spreading.

The EFSF will be boosted to ensure it can insure loans made to governments such as Italy up to a value of 1tn euros.

但意大利的問題，特別是意味著 7月份的交易很快就看到不足。

隨著扮演意大利政府緊急財政援助的角色，EFSF是繼其在希臘救助的作用，估計只增加2500億歐元（3500億美元，英鎊 219bn），是不足以保證如意大利這一個龐大的經濟體的貸款超過一年。在10月，歐洲領導人同意了一系列新措施，衡量並盡量避免債務危機的蔓延。

EFSF將推動增加，以確保可以保證貸款給政府，如意大利政府1萬億歐元的價值。

In addition banks will have to write off a larger portion of Greek debt.

To prepare them for this and any future losses they will have to increase the capital they hold by more than 100bn euros between them, if necessary with intervention from national governments.

此外，銀行將必須核銷大部分的希臘債務。

如果國家政府的干預有必要，為了準備今年和今後的任何損失，他們將必須增加他們持有的資本超過 1000億歐元。


參考資料 :
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